An image of water carving a channel in a gravel path that diverges and then joins up again.
It has been frantic weekend here in Canada. The President of the United States implemented an executive order that imposed a 25% tariff on every single item exported from Canada to the United States, except 10% on energy. In retaliation, our federal and provincial governments have imposed some selected tariffs on American imports to Canada and in some cases we have closed markets for procurement for American services or for products like American produced alcohol.
We are in a trade war that will likely lead to a recession in Canada within mere months on par with the 2008-09 recession. Back then, our GDP shrank by about 2.5%. We are in more than liminal chaos.
To make it worse, the President has declared that he will increase those tariffs if we don’t do what he says or if we retaliate. We have already retaliated.
Why has he done this? Well the stated reason is that there is a national emergency involving fentanyl and illegal immigrants crossing the northern border. Trump has said that the tariffs will be lifted if we make progress on these issues but he gave no indicator of what that means or would look like.
Let’s be clear. The opioid crisis affects both of our countries severely. For the past five years we have had a US-Canada Joint Steering Committee on this issue. But in terms of a border issue about 0.2% of the US’s fentanyl supply comes over the border. Immigrations issues over the northern order as similarly negligible. There are always issues to deal with.
But the President’s plan is clearly not to address these issues on the northern border through forcing the Canadian economy to its knees. We are already working on these issues together. Indeed I was in North Carolina in 2023 supporting incredible local leadership on opioid issues.
Instead, his agenda appears to be nothing more than the capitulation of Canada to US economic if not political sovereignty.
When dealing with Donald Trump, my heuristic has been “he will do what he says he will do and he will always lie about why.” This weekend the entire country has been talking about what we can do, how we can react, what is going to happen to different sectors of our economy. Fans have booed or sat through the Star Spangled Banner at NHL and NBA games. People are going through their inventory of household items and looking for Canadian made alternatives. There is palpable anxiety here about what comes next and what we have the power to do.
And yet, I haven’t heard much from my American friends on this. Not at all surprising because while this has been going on, your federal government is being chaotically dismantled. Also the tariffs that Canada has imposed on US goods are not really going to affect you all much. Although we are the US’s biggest trading partner, what we send to the US is dissolved into a market ten times the size of ours. You will feel price shocks at the gas pump and on imported foods from the US tariffs. If you buy a “domestic” car, you’re going to pay about $5000 more. Maybe the effect of these tariffs on Mexico will hurt you more on a day-to-day basis. But you might not see or understand how devastating the US’s opening volley in this war against Canada has been. Or what we are afraid will happen next.
This is a stupid and needless action. It has undone almost 5 decades of free trade between Canada and US which has deeply integrated our economies. It is going to result in millions of layoffs in Canada just when people are recovering from the economic shocks of COVID. We are already planning COVID-level responses to this to ensure that workers in Canada who are laid off can pay their rents while this is all happening. But who knows what will happen in the long run because there may not be a business to come back to. Our dollar will tank as we try to attract international markets for our goods.
So my American friends, it’s no surprise that this is happening of course. We all knew it would if Donald Trump got elected, becasue he told us he would. He has slid the knife between our ribs and seems intent on twisting it. I believe him when he says he wants to annex Canada, and I believe he will try everything in his power to do that economically rather than militarily. A couple of weeks ago I outlined how I think this might go, and I think this is still a plausible scenario. So thank you for not joking about the “51st state” thing any more.
We don’t want to be Americans. We don’t need to be part of the US, and you don’t need us to be Americans.
What I want you to know is that the work we do together matters no matter what our governments say about each other. The work I get to do with you in the US is in support of building organizations, teams and communities that builds community, resilience and connection. And many have you have helped support our organizations and communities here doing the same work. We’ve done that together because healthy communities and organizations that are founded on the work we do and are timeless capacities for dealing with change, for building better places and creating more sustainable goodness in the world.
So on that score – on the levels of friendship and colleagueship – nothing has changed. We are all victims of these kinds of macroeconomic and geopolitical machinations.
You all have work to do to deal with this stuff. In Canada we all have stuff to do too. But you and I? Our eyes have always been on bigger work of supporting life-giving contexts for people in their organizations and communities. The context always changes. The desire and need for belonging, connection and community is evergreen.
Onward.
We are horrified.
Hear, hear. Well said.
Someone needs to show Trump some more historical context. USA was deeply protectionist before the civil war and the Morrill Tariffs were a major factor leading to the war because agricultural exports collapsed due to retaliation further weakening the southern states. The Great Depression was also made worse because of tariffs. I believe Trump is doing this to generate more tax income so he can issue more tax cuts for the wealthy. But it will still add to the deficit because he will have to bail out the farmers more than he did last time. He also likes the chaos in the stock markets because then the rich have the money free to buy up the stocks when the price drops. It’s another great shift of wealth from the majority to the 1%.
And as much as we want to be friends with our American neighbours, we will have to retaliate. You have to stand up to bullies and that is what Trump’s government is. It’s what Americans would do if the tables were turned.
100%
Oh my, thank you Chris, for a very in-depth and informative post… I am so sorry for what “my” government is doing…
We’re all in it together. Playing the hands we’re dealt.
My heart goes out to you in Canada, with profound respect for you as a sovereign nation. I am in Maine for part of the year and have felt for decades that we are in the same bioregion as Quebec and more eastern Canadian lands, as well as knowing the indigenous lands that precede and cross our national borders. The work of at least some of us right now in the US is to self regulate and realize our capacities for not being completely overwhelmed by the chaos as we begin self organizing to resist and take care of each other. We did know this was coming dependent on the election results but the experience is of course different than the imagined course. Coup is the word of the day.
I have valued your posts for years and will continue to do so. There is a lot of wisdom flowing in this suddenly new territory we navigate. Bob Stilger’s New Stories had a post this morning about Reweaving. I think that’s a good image to sit with. Many of us have been critical of Western systems but our ideas of what would be better and healthier are not what those controlling the current wrecking ball imagine. We may not go back and that may not be the best thing. Hold onto best thoughts for moving forward in reweaving. That’s my best thought this afternoon, tho sanity is something of a moving target –
We can do it without each other. These economic shocks are still paling in comparison to the environmental ones. Connection is the order of the day. Thanks for this thoughtful response.
Absolutely horrendous for all of North America and probably the world. I fear the worst. I think only Trump’s supporters will be able to influence him. Otherwise, worse for US and Canada than Brexit has been for UK. I fantasize about each Canadian province becoming a state and the difference that would make in the US Senate. But I would not wish that on our Canadian brothers and sisters.
Yes. I think in general we really want to stick with this experiment in nation-building we are working with in Canada, despite its flaws and challenges.
I appreciate this Chris… Both the call out (Where are you American folks?) and the call in (We’re still in this together!). ?
I get why I haven’t heard from you yet. But boy is it ever nice to hear from you now! There’s nothing new to do between us. Connection matters!
I love you friend and know we are in this together. In the same waters though on different boats.
Being deep in the organizing of rent funds and basic supplies for our neighbors’ survival here for the last 4 months… it not letting up but getting more intense… I feel like it’s a glimpse of what so many of us may be experiencing down the line.
I know for me, the question has been where to focus, how to keep orienting myself with my relations when the threat to people’s well-being is so widespread… so many fronts.
May we all find our place, showing up with what we have to offer. May we support one another deeply as we navigate along. And may the pieces line up, in some beautiful ways that maybe or maybe not we thought to imagine. May we be open to many possibilities. <3
This is it isn’t it? All of us doing our work at home and keeping our eyes on the rest of the world.
And always having each other’s backs. It’s a gift to share this world and this time with you.
As Brit, and a Welsh one at that, I have an almost genetic sense of how colonisation happens through currency and violence. I am completely appreciative of this piece and it has cheered me. None of us are safe when a power-propelled mendicant is let loose.
Not much original to add to the thoughtful comments already made. Just adding another voice from the US side of the border.
Thank you for your clear-eyed summary of what is going on.
And, as Tom Malarkey said, “I appreciate this Chris… Both the call out (Where are you American folks?) and the call in (We’re still in this together!). ?”
Thanks. It’s hard to keep an eye on everything in the world. But always good to hear from my beloveds.