The calm before the coming moment

Thomas Homer-Dixon writing in the Globe and Mail this weekend:

Constitutive moments are a special kind of historical inflection point. Powerful actors like U.S. presidents always operate within a constellation of macro-trends, cultures, institutions, and social and political alliances. But during constitutive moments, they have a rare opportunity to radically reconfigure that constellation because the usual constraints on selecting from, combining, and adjusting its elements are greatly weakened. The systems they’re operating within are abnormally susceptible to massive change.

Leaders who effectively exploit these opportunities can create not just profoundly new ways of doing things, but also new ways of seeing things. A constitutive moment shifts our deepest understandings of the world and its possibilities, and to the extent that these understandings partially create the world around us, it shifts our world’s essence itself

I’m coming back from nearly 2 weeks working in the United States and I would be lying if it didn’t feel like it was a little bit like watching the film of people enjoying the last few minutes of their holiday before the tsunami hit Indonesia in 2004. I’m not sure if the foreboding dread I feel for my friends and colleagues in the States is an over-reaction, or whether I’m not taking it seriously enough. I think Homer-Dixon‘s article captures it quite well. It’s a constitutive moment, and what that means remains to be seen, but I’m reading articles about the fragility of Canada and our inability to meet what’s coming without strong and visionary leadership. I’m reading articles and opinions I never imagined would appear in mainstream newspapers. I see that we are at a loss. Mired in the apprentice moment.

The people we’ve been working with over the past two weeks, in academic institutions in Texas, and community organizations, and foundations, and frontline agencies in Alaska, are the best people. They are the folks that will be present for what’s coming. They are the ones who are always extending care, who are putting the best interests of their students and clients and colleagues front and center. I leave them feeling concern and love and admiration for them. Many are scared. Some are ready. Others are welcoming this moment. It’s not simple.

We truly have no idea what is coming. And so I leave this montage of four images which I took on a walk around downtown Seattle on Saturday, and which captured my mood and the feeling of the city on a beautiful cold, perfectly clear, January 18, 2025.